By Syed Khalid Husain
Singapore
February’s parliamentary elections in Bangladesh will be the first since a popular uprising 18 months ago that ended the 15-year rule of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid. The February 12 elections will see candidates from dozens of political parties competing for 350 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament).
Among the major political parties contesting the elections are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP). The former ruling party, the Awami League, which was previously led by Sheikh Hasina, was barred from participating in the elections after the country’s Election Commission suspended its registration in May last year. It will be the first time in the South Asian country’s 55-year history that its largest and most powerful political party will not be able to participate in a general election.
Sheikh Hasina, 78, was sentenced to death in November last year after being found guilty of crimes against humanity for violently suppressing protests during the August 2024 popular movement. She fled Bangladesh after her government was overthrown during the protests and has been living in self-imposed exile in neighbouring India ever since.
The current leader of the BNP is Tarique Rahman, the elder son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, who died in December last year at the age of 80. Tarique returned to Bangladesh the same month after 17 years in exile. He is widely seen as a leading contender for the country’s prime ministership. Last month, his party launched its election campaign with a major rally in Sylhet.
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), several of whose leaders were released after Sheikh Hasina fled to India, is returning to active politics after its absence from the electoral process since 2013. The party launched its campaign from the capital, Dhaka.
NCP, the youth organisation that led the popular movement against Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, also started its election campaign from Dhaka.
Dramatic Turnaround Likely
The BNP enjoys strong public support and most voters are optimistic about its success. BJI has been buoyed by the recent success of its affiliates in the student elections of several top universities. The party is pushing for a more inclusive public policy, with a campaign against misrule, welfare services and the nomination of its first Hindu candidate. The NCP has joined an 11-party alliance led by the Jamaat-e-Islami to secure a majority. The alliance is seeking to expand its influence and if it succeeds in the elections, it would be a dramatic turnaround for BJI, which was subjected to a brutal crackdown during Sheikh Hasina’s rule.
The ban on the Awami League has made these elections a bipolar contest between the BNP and the BJI-led electoral alliance. The group was formed with the student leaders of the 2024 uprising along with other Islamist parties. Recent opinion polls suggest that the BJI, a senior ally of the BNP for decades, is now closing in on it in the race.
Rising Influence of the BJI-Led Alliance
The like-minded 11 Parties, formally known as the United Bangladesh and simply referred to as the 11 Parties, is a big-tent electoral alliance of 11 political parties led by the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.
The alliance signifies a strategic partnership between traditional Islamist forces and new student leaders. This alliance is emerging as a major contender in a bipolar contest following the banning of the Awami League.
The member parties of this alliance and their leaders are: Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (Shafiqur Rahman), National Citizen Party (Nahid Islam), Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis (Mamunul Haque), Khelafat Majlis (Abdul Basit Azad), Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan (Habibullah Mianji), Nizam-e-Islam Party (Sarwar Kamal Azizi), Bangladesh Development Party (Anwarul Islam Chan), Jatiya Ganotantrik Party (Tasmia Pradhan), Liberal Democratic Party (Oli Ahmad), Amar Bangladesh Party (Mojibur Rahman Bhuiyan Monju) and Bangladesh Labour Party (Mustafizur Rahman Iran).
New Political Landscape
Currently, Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus is heading the interim government established after the popular revolution. His interim government has pledged to hold free and fair elections, widely seen as the most productive in Bangladesh’s history.
The elections offer the country a chance to return to democracy after the end of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule. The resurgence of formerly underground parties such as the BNP is expected to create a more balanced and inclusive political landscape. In the light of recent political changes and security challenges, these elections will prove decisive for the country’s democratic direction and will mark the beginning of a new political era for this Muslim-majority country of 170 million people as leaders like Tariq Rehman, who returned after a long exile, and parties like BJI, who are on the path to revival, are playing important roles.
The international community is keeping a close eye on these elections and the electoral process is being watched closely at the international level. According to observers from the European Union, this could be the biggest democratic exercise of 2026.
India’s Concerns
Given the recent political crisis, a change of power in Bangladesh is possible, which could create a new situation for India. For New Delhi, the victory of BJI and its allied parties in the elections could be quite worrying.
India was the strongest supporter of the Awami League, even granting asylum to its former leader Sheikh Hasina despite her death sentence. Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi have already cooled since the collapse of the Awami League. A BJI-led government could further this trend and change relations with India on many levels. Observers believe that such an administration in Bangladesh could push the country “closer to Pakistan”.
The interim government has already tried to deepen relations with Pakistan and China, which would be a strategic shift for India. New Delhi sees a “real threat” to Bangladesh’s eight per cent Hindu minority under the BJI-led government. This could raise concerns in India.
The stability of any government in Bangladesh is crucial for regional stability. Political changes could affect relations with neighbouring countries. However, February 12 will be a defining moment in Bangladesh’s political history.
Hopes and Concerns
The atmosphere surrounding these elections is one of both hope and concern. The country is moving towards a new era after the 2024 political revolution. Hopes are linked to change and restoration, while concerns are related to stability and violent incidents. There is a fear of possible violence or terrorist acts during political rallies and election campaigns, which has recently been heightened by the assassination of popular revolutionary student leader Sharif Usman Hadi. Bangladesh police claim that Hadi’s killers have fled to India.
There are questions about the independence of the Election Commission and the transparency of the electoral process. If the elections are deemed rigged and the results are widely disputed, the country could once again face a serious political crisis and protests may erupt again. The Awami League and Sheikh Hasina could potentially try to destabilise the electoral process. The spread of fake news and propaganda on social media threatens to influence public opinion and spoil the electoral atmosphere. There are concerns about political uncertainty, security issues and the spread of fake news on social media in the country.
However, if the elections are free and fair, they could pave the way for political reforms under the care of an interim government that could bring stability to the country. Fair elections could help restore international relations and economic aid. Muhammad Yunus is seen as an effective leader in economic recovery reforms and bringing back international aid. Significantly, he has proposed holding a referendum alongside the elections to reform what he calls the “broken political system”, which is expected to fundamentally reform the political system.
Economic Challenges
The upcoming elections are likely to produce new political alliances and emerging parties, which will have a significant impact on the country’s economy. The government that comes after these elections will face the following economic challenges:
Inflation and economic slowdown: The country is suffering from inflation and economic slowdown. The approval of a loan by the International Monetary Fund indicates the fragile state of the country’s economy.
Poverty: Poverty has increased and people’s daily income is decreasing.
Global economic conditions and industrial development: The country’s economy has been affected by the global economic slowdown.
Exports and industrial structure: The garment industry accounts for about 80 per cent of the country’s exports. But the industrial structure needs further development and modernisation.
Corruption: Bangladesh is ranked 151st out of 180 countries in the world in terms of transparency.
Energy crisis and foreign-exchange reserves: The energy crisis has put pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.
Climate Change: The country is vulnerable to the severe impacts of climate change, which threatens agriculture and infrastructure.
[The writer is a Singapore-based senior journalist. He may be reached at +65 91195711]
