By Mir Lutful Kabir Saadi
Dhaka: India appears ready to open a new chapter in its relationship with Bangladesh under the leadership of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, with senior policymakers in New Delhi indicating that they are prepared to give the new administration the ‘benefit of the doubt’ as bilateral ties enter a sensitive but potentially transformative phase.
The message came from Pankaj Saran, a veteran Indian diplomat and current head of the Delhi-based geopolitical think tank NatStrat, during an extensive interaction with a Bangladeshi media delegation visiting India.
Saran’s remarks provide one of the clearest indications yet of how India’s strategic establishment is assessing Bangladesh’s new political reality following the country’s recent transition of power.
India’s Calculated Opening
According to Saran, India wants to move beyond the strained atmosphere that characterised relations during the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus and instead establish a pragmatic working relationship with the new government in Dhaka. “India wants to begin a new chapter with Bangladesh’s new leadership,” Saran said, emphasising that New Delhi moved quickly after the election to recognise the new administration.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly congratulated Tarique Rahman immediately after the election outcome, followed by a public acknowledgment from the Bangladeshi leader. Indian policymakers, however, remain deeply conscious of historical baggage.
Saran repeatedly referenced the 2001–2006 period, when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) last governed Bangladesh. During those years, India accused Dhaka of ignoring Indian concerns over insurgent and militant activities allegedly operating from Bangladeshi territory against India’s northeastern states.
According to Saran, the absence of meaningful dialogue at the time nearly caused bilateral relations to collapse. “India would raise concerns, Bangladesh would deny them, and eventually both countries suffered,” he observed.
Yet despite those memories, New Delhi now appears willing to reassess the BNP under what Indian strategists see as a changed political and geopolitical environment. “Times change. Leadership changes. We see many new faces in the cabinet,” Saran noted. “India wants to give the new leadership the benefit of the doubt.”
Security Remains India’s Core Concern
Saran made it clear that national security remains the central lens through which India evaluates all relationships in South Asia. India’s strategic community is now closely watching how Bangladesh manages its ties with major external powers, particularly China, Pakistan and the United States.
“We need to see how the new government balances these relationships and where India fits within that framework,” he said. This reflects a broader regional anxiety in New Delhi. India increasingly views South Asia through the prism of great-power competition, especially amid China’s expanding influence and what Indian analysts perceive as renewed closeness between Washington and Islamabad.
Saran described the growing US-Pakistan relationship as a major strategic concern for India, saying it has created ‘a complicated situation’ for New Delhi at a time when India-Pakistan diplomatic ties remain effectively frozen.
The Symbolism of a Political Envoy
India’s decision to appoint veteran politician Dinesh Trivedi as its next High Commissioner to Bangladesh was portrayed by Saran as highly significant.
According to him, Trivedi is the first politically appointed Indian envoy to Bangladesh since 1971, signalling that Modi personally wants a trusted political representative in Dhaka rather than a conventional career diplomat.
The move suggests India views Bangladesh not merely as a neighbouring state but as a strategically vital partner requiring direct political management at the highest level. “You cannot deny history, geography and culture,” Saran said, emphasising the inevitability of close engagement between the two countries regardless of which party governs in either capital.
The Sheikh Hasina Question
One of the most politically delicate issues remains India’s hosting of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Saran attempted to frame the matter within broader political and historical precedents, noting that Tarique Rahman himself spent years in exile in London and that Hasina had previously taken refuge in India between 1975 and 1981 before returning to Bangladesh during the presidency of Ziaur Rahman.
He acknowledged, however, that the current situation is politically sensitive and would require careful handling by both governments. The issue remains particularly controversial in Bangladesh, where critics of Hasina accuse her administration of authoritarian abuses and severe human rights violations during her tenure.
Border Killings and the ‘Illegal Economy’
On the long-contentious issue of border killings along the Indo-Bangladesh frontier, Saran admitted the situation was ‘unfortunate’ and argued that both countries share responsibility for addressing it.
He described the border economy as heavily dependent on illicit trade, smuggling networks and criminal syndicates, creating an environment where civilians frequently become entangled in violence. Rather than escalating tensions between border forces, Saran argued for deeper operational coordination between the two countries’ security agencies.
His remarks implicitly acknowledged one of the most persistent irritants in bilateral relations: allegations against India’s Border Security Force (BSF) over civilian deaths near the frontier.
Teesta, Water Politics and China
Saran also addressed Bangladesh’s proposed Teesta River project involving Chinese assistance. While emphasising that Bangladesh has every sovereign right to pursue infrastructure partnerships with Beijing, he admitted that India views such developments through a strategic lens because the Teesta is a shared transboundary river.
His comments reflected New Delhi’s broader dilemma: balancing acceptance of Bangladesh’s sovereign choices while remaining wary of China’s expanding footprint in South Asia.
On the Ganges water-sharing treaty, which expires later this year, Saran indicated that future negotiations could involve revisions to hydrological baseline data used in determining water allocation formulas. Water-sharing remains one of the most politically sensitive dimensions of Bangladesh-India relations, particularly in Bangladesh’s northern regions where Teesta water scarcity has become a major domestic political issue.
India’s Media Narrative and Intelligence Allegations
Responding to criticism about anti-Bangladesh narratives in sections of the Indian media, Saran argued that India’s media landscape is too large and diverse to generalise. He acknowledged that some outlets may have promoted hostile narratives but rejected the idea of a coordinated anti-Bangladesh campaign.
Saran also dismissed allegations of excessive Indian intelligence operations inside Bangladesh as exaggerated and politically motivated. “Every state has intelligence agencies,” he said, adding that intelligence-sharing between countries is common practice even outside wartime conditions.
SAARC, Regional Order and the Future of South Asia
Bangladesh’s new government has reportedly shown interest in reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, but Saran appeared sceptical about the bloc’s future. According to him, SAARC summits historically became hostage to India-Pakistan rivalry, limiting meaningful regional integration. Instead, he suggested that bilateral arrangements outside the SAARC framework have yielded more practical outcomes.
At the same time, Saran warned that regional instability – particularly in Myanmar, Afghanistan and Pakistan – poses serious security threats for both India and Bangladesh. He also raised concerns about the increasing role of religion in South Asian politics, remarking that any attempt to formally transform India into a Hindu state could threaten the country’s very existence.
A New Democratic Moment?
Perhaps most strikingly, Saran characterised the current political transitions across South Asia as the emergence of a broader democratic realignment. He pointed to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives as countries entering ‘a new political journey’ under fresh leadership. He also described current Bangladesh-US relations as possibly the strongest since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.
Taken together, Saran’s remarks suggest that India is attempting to recalibrate its Bangladesh strategy in response to rapidly evolving regional dynamics. Yet beneath the diplomatic optimism lies persistent caution.
For New Delhi, engagement with Tarique Rahman’s government is not rooted in sentiment but in strategic necessity: managing security concerns, countering geopolitical rivals, stabilising borders and preserving influence in one of South Asia’s most consequential neighbouring states.
Whether this ‘new chapter’ succeeds will depend not only on diplomatic goodwill, but also on how both governments navigate unresolved historical mistrust, competing geopolitical pressures, and deeply sensitive domestic political realities on both sides of the border.
