Patna: The Axis My India exit poll for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections shows a clear social divide between the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan. The Nitish Kumar-led NDA has consolidated its base among OBCs, EBCs, Scheduled Castes, and upper-caste voters, while the RJD-Congress alliance continues to draw firm support from Muslims and Yadavs.
The survey gives the NDA a 43% vote share, narrowly ahead of the Mahagathbandhan’s 41%. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is projected to secure 4%. The NDA’s broad reach includes 63% of OBCs, 58% of EBCs, and 49% of Scheduled Castes, along with a strong 65% among upper castes.
The Mahagathbandhan maintains its core strength, winning 79% of Muslim votes and 90% of Yadav votes. Support from other caste groups remains limited, with 19% among OBCs and 26% among EBCs.
Women voters have again played a decisive role. With 71.6% turnout, higher than men’s 64.1%, women strongly backed the NDA at 45%, citing Nitish Kumar’s welfare schemes and the Rs 10,000 cash promise.
The Mahagathbandhan gained traction among unemployed and student voters, securing 49% and 48% support respectively. Urban and rural preferences remain nearly even, with the NDA holding a slight lead in both.
The age divide is also visible. Younger voters lean towards the Mahagathbandhan, while older voters continue to prefer the NDA, reinforcing Nitish Kumar’s enduring appeal across traditional social coalitions.
