By Mohamed Atherulla Shariff
The recent by-elections in Karnataka have provided a significant political boost to the Indian National Congress, which retained both key assembly constituencies – Bagalkot and Davanagere South. The results, declared in early May 2026, reaffirm the party’s electoral resilience in the state and underline deeper socio-political currents, particularly the role of Muslim voters and the question of adequate representation within the party.
A Strategic Victory for Congress
The Congress party’s success in retaining both seats came at a time when bypolls across the country largely favoured the BJP-led NDA. Karnataka stood out as the only state where Congress secured victories in this round of elections. In Bagalkot, Congress candidate Umesh Hullappa Meti won convincingly, with a margin of 22,300 votes, continuing the political legacy of his father, while in Davanagere South, the party managed to hold ground despite a competitive contest.
These victories are also consistent with a broader trend: since coming to power in the state, Congress has maintained a strong record in by-elections, demonstrating organisational strength and effective local mobilisation.
The Muslim Vote: Support with Signs of Strain
A crucial dimension of these bypolls was the behaviour of Muslim voters, traditionally considered a key support base for Congress in Karnataka. While the party ultimately emerged victorious, reports indicate that the Muslim vote was not entirely consolidated.
In Davanagere South, for instance, Congress faced discontent among sections of Muslim voters after denying a ticket to a candidate from the community. Estimates suggest that out of roughly 55,000 Muslim votes, the party may have lost a significant portion, around 20,000, to smaller parties and independent candidates. SDPI candidate Afsar Kodlipete alone obtained 18,975 votes. This partial shift did not overturn the result but served as a warning signal to both the party and the community.
This trend reflects a broader pattern seen in Indian politics, where minority voters are becoming more assertive and strategic, often demanding not just symbolic inclusion but tangible political representation and policy responsiveness.
Representation Deficit: A Persistent Concern
The bypoll results have also revived a longstanding critique of the Congress party: the perceived mismatch between Muslim electoral support and political representation. While Muslims often vote in substantial numbers for Congress, their share in tickets and leadership positions remains a matter of debate.
National-level data from recent elections shows that Congress has fielded and elected a notable number of Muslim candidates in some states, such as Assam and Kerala. However, this trend is uneven and does not uniformly translate to states like Karnataka, where the party has been cautious in ticket distribution, often prioritising winnability and local caste equations over community representation.
In the Karnataka bypolls, the absence of Muslim candidates in certain constituencies appears to have contributed to voter dissatisfaction, even if it did not decisively impact the outcome.
Balancing Social Coalitions
Congress’s electoral strategy in Karnataka continues to rely on a broad social coalition – combining minorities, Dalits, backward classes, and sections of upper castes. The bypoll victories suggest that this coalition remains largely intact. However, the partial drift in Muslim votes indicates that maintaining this balance requires continuous negotiation and responsiveness.
The challenge for Congress is twofold: to retain its core minority support while also expanding its appeal among other communities. Over-reliance on any one group without adequate representation risks alienation, while excessive fragmentation of ticket distribution may weaken electoral prospects.
The Congress victory in the Karnataka bypolls is both a success story and a cautionary tale. On one hand, it demonstrates the party’s organisational strength and enduring appeal. On the other, it highlights emerging tensions within its support base, particularly among Muslim voters who are increasingly vocal about representation.
Going forward, the party’s ability to address these concerns – by ensuring fair representation, engaging with community aspirations, and maintaining a cohesive social coalition – will be crucial in sustaining its electoral dominance in Karnataka.
Bagalkot Assembly constituency
Available sources mainly report margins and winner/runner totals, but not full multi-party breakdowns. The key figures are:
Congress (Umesh Meti) – Winner (exact total not fully reported in all sources)
BJP (Veeranna Charantimath) – Runner-up
Detailed party-wise vote numbers (including minor candidates) have not been fully published in accessible summaries yet, but the result was a clear Congress victory with a large margin.
Davangere South Assembly constituency
Here, a clearer party-wise vote distribution is available:
Congress (Samarth Mallikarjun) – 68,578 – 69,578 votes
BJP (Srinivas T. Dasakariyappa) – 63,870 votes
SDPI Others/Independents – Smaller vote shares
Margin (Congress win) – about 5,700 votes
