It appears that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “joy” over the major recent political achievements did not last long. His accomplishments included the overthrowing of the Syrian regime and its replacement by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the opposition Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), of his acceptance of a ceasefire and the laying down of arms. This bliss was obstructed due to President Erdoğan’s sudden decision to arrest Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, three days before the opposition announced his candidacy to run against him in the presidential elections. This arrest led to massive demonstrations in the commercial capital Istanbul and political capital Ankara, as well as several other cities. The Turkish police’s arrest of Imamoglu and 106 other prominent figures of the opposition “Ataturkist” party on corruption charges led to a 10 percent drop in stock prices on the stock exchange on Wednesday evening and a decline of approximately 6 percent in lira, despite the injection of $10 billion into the financial markets to support it.
President Erdoğan’s significant economic successes as mayor of Istanbul played a major role in bringing the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in 2002. However, the economic situation, which began to rapidly deteriorate as a result of unwise economic policies that led to high inflation rates, led to the ruling party’s fall in the recent municipal elections and its loss of Türkiye’s three largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.
The deadly combination of high inflation and the depreciation of lira has led to increased poverty rates, a decline in the standard of living, and a decline in purchasing power. This has created popular discontent, just as happened in Argentina, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, and led to the outbreak of sweeping popular revolutions that changed the regimes. Some believe the same thing could happen in Türkiye. But we have absolutely no doubt about Erdogan’s “ability,” nor do we question his skill to overcome crises he and his rule have faced over the past 23 years. However, it appears that the current crisis, sparked by the arrest of his arch-rival and opponent, the younger mayor of Istanbul, may have different outcomes than all previous crises. All opinion polls confirm İmamoğlu’s lead in any upcoming presidential elections, and his arrest and the massive demonstrations that ensued have only strengthened this popularity. President Erdogan, according to most experts of the Turkish affairs we contacted, took a very risky “gamble” by arresting his opponent, Imamoglu, to remove him from the race for the early presidential elections, which he plans to announce within a few months, hoping to win and remain in power for another presidential term, rather than waiting until the official date for the 2028 elections, which the constitution does not allow him to run in.
President Erdoğan accepts nothing less than victory over all his opponents who posed even a minor threat to his leadership of the ruling party and removing them from his path. Examples abound, starting with Abdullah Gül, Ahmet Davutoğlu, and Ali Babacan. However, removing Ekrem İmamoğlu, the opposition candidate who holds the mayor’s post of Istanbul, the second most important position in Türkiye after the president, may be a much more difficult task than all his predecessors. However, President Erdoğan will not yield to the strong, escalating demands for Ekrem İmamoğlu’s release. In this case, he may find himself faced with two options: the first, to continue his detention and trial and postpone his plan to hold early presidential elections to buy time; the second, for the protests to continue and expand, leading to a state of chaos, and perhaps giving the army a pretext to launch a military coup and seize power.
[by Abdul Bari Atwan in Rai Al-Youm]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque
