✒️ Mafikul Islam
The skies over Dhaka this year seem heavy with geopolitical clouds – visible even from the lanes of our Kolkata neighbourhoods. In May 2025, the debate over a UN-supervised “humanitarian corridor” from Cox’s Bazar to Myanmar’s Rakhine State drew international attention. Then came the decision to hand over operations of three terminals of Chittagong Port to foreign companies for 30 years – a move that would expand US-linked access to the Bay of Bengal and raise fresh questions about regional stability in South Asia. The mysterious death of a US special forces officer in August, the massive fire that engulfed the cargo village at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in October, and Washington’s renewed interest in a military training pact with the Bangladesh Army in September – each of these events, viewed in isolation, might appear accidental or procedural. But taken together, they signal something larger: Bangladesh has emerged on the geopolitical chessboard of the Indo-Pacific, where the United States is carefully weaving its strategy to counter China’s expanding influence. India, too, is watching closely because stability in the Bay of Bengal means security on its eastern frontier. Some may rush to call it conspiracy; we shall examine, with evidence, how Bangladesh, despite being a small nation, has become a decisive piece in a much larger geopolitical game – echoing from Delhi to Washington.
A decade ago, US diplomacy in South Asia was almost entirely India-centric. But in recent years, Washington’s perspective has shifted dramatically. The United States now views Bangladesh’s location as a critical “connector” in the Indo-Pacific security arc. In the 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States, the Biden administration identified Bangladesh as a “partner in developing democracy and maritime security.” China’s expanding Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Russia’s growing energy footprint, and the vital maritime routes of the Bay of Bengal – these three factors have led Washington to reassess Bangladesh’s strategic value. The US now believes that South Asian stability depends not only on Delhi’s policies but also on Dhaka’s direction. Earlier, Washington treated India as the “main player” in the region; now, it is building strategic ties with both Bangladesh and Pakistan, something that clearly concerns India. The 2024 Integrated Country Strategy (ICS) explicitly stated that stabilising and securing Bangladesh is essential to safeguarding American interests. Why? Because China’s $5 billion J-10 fighter jet deal, the submarine base at Pekua, and Russia’s $12 billion Rooppur Nuclear Project are pulling Bangladesh into the orbit of rival powers. With 25% of global trade passing through the Bay of Bengal, the US wants port access in Chittagong under its Quad Ports of the Future initiative. The Biden–Yunus meeting in September 2024 reaffirmed “full support” for this direction.
On August 31, 2025, a US national named Terrence Arvelle “TJ” Jackson was found dead at a five-star hotel in Dhaka. Some reports identified him as a “US special forces officer.” Police noted he was found ill in his room, yet no local postmortem was conducted; the body was swiftly handed over to the US Embassy. The incident triggered intense speculation online – some called it a tragic accident, others suggested deeper causes. Indian media and social platform X circulated claims that Jackson had been stationed in Bangladesh since April, training local military units.
The October 18 fire at the cargo village of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport turned, within moments, into a symbol shrouded in smoke and geopolitics. The Finance Today estimated the losses at nearly Tk 12,214 crore, mostly garments and pharmaceuticals – the two pillars of Bangladesh’s export economy. The blaze delayed at least 18 Europe-bound consignments, dealing not only an economic but also a reputational blow to Bangladesh’s trade credibility. Calls for a high-level investigation are growing, but the key question remains: was it mere mismanagement or a deeper warning about logistical vulnerability? In today’s Indo-Pacific reality, disruptions in such infrastructure can shake not only trade but also strategic security foundations.
At a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in Washington, Brent Christensen, the newly nominated US ambassador to Bangladesh, gave a statement that carried immense significance for South Asia’s diplomatic climate. Senator Rick Ricketts asked: “If Bangladesh purchases J-10 fighter jets or submarines from China, wouldn’t that endanger regional stability?”
Christensen admitted that Bangladesh’s military dependence on China poses risks, but said the US approach is “not pressure, but offering alternatives.” He emphasised Washington’s intent to provide Dhaka with “cost-effective options” through allied systems, joint exercises, and interoperable platforms. This reflects the diplomatic implementation of the “Think-Twice Act”, encouraging friendly competition to reduce reliance on Chinese weapons. From India’s perspective, this is soft diplomacy in action, pulling Bangladesh gradually away from Pekua’s Chinese submarine base toward US strategic alignment.
Yet Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority country, where any surge in Western influence often provokes concern among Islamic groups. In Indonesia and Malaysia, the US promoted so-called “moderate Islamic democracy” to marginalise religious politics; in Türkiye, similar strategies, aided by National Endowment for Democracy (NED) funding, weakened Islamic political movements. If such a pattern is applied to Bangladesh, it could trigger cultural instability. Hence, those in Bangladesh who seek to align state power with Islamic values must assess Washington’s approach with caution and strategic foresight.
The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Bangladesh’s first nuclear energy project, is more than just a power initiative; it has become a burning symbol of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Valued at $12.65 billion, with 90% financed by Russia, it marks Moscow’s strategic re-entry into South Asia. Yet beneath the surface lie complex geo-economic frictions: currency sanctions on ruble-dollar transactions, delayed payments, and safety-standard disputes. International analysts warn that experiences like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port or Pakistan’s CPEC “debt trap” underscore real risks in the region. The US views Russia’s role at Rooppur with caution, fearing it could pull Dhaka deeper into Moscow’s financial and technological orbit. On the banks of the Padma, the rising 2,400 MW structure shines like a beacon; but for India, Rooppur is a double-edged opportunity. If built transparently and collaboratively, it could become a milestone of Bangladesh-India energy cooperation; if not, it may mark the dawn of a new geopolitical divide.
In this evolving regional landscape, India must learn from its past mistakes regarding Bangladesh. The two countries share a 4,156 km border, the slightest crack in relations can destabilise Northeast India’s security, border trade, and internal harmony. New Delhi now needs an inclusive Bangladesh policy, recognising the country’s multi-layered social and political reality. One-sided diplomacy cannot sustain long-term stability. Our bond with Bangladesh is like an old friendship; it must be protected through storms, for the peace of South Asia depends on it. Learning from the past, especially from an overly Awami League–centric policy, India must now engage equally with the BNP and Islamic-oriented parties to build a balanced partnership.
For India, five strategic priorities are now essential:
- Establish a joint task force for border security and control of illegal migration;
- Expand transit connectivity for Northeast India through Chittagong and Mongla ports by honouring Bangladesh’s fair demands;
- Deepen cooperation in defence, cybersecurity, and water-resource management;
- Strengthen the Indo-Pacific alignment among Dhaka, New Delhi, Tokyo, and Washington; and
- Finally, ensure mutual accountability for protecting minorities and border communities in both nations.
Bangladesh today is not just a South Asian country; it’s a strategic crossroads at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, where every policy decision reverberates across regional power balances. India must recognise that its relationship with Dhaka is not merely about borders or trade; it is an integral pillar of the future security architecture. As Bangladesh becomes a focal point in the tug-of-war between the US and China, it is simultaneously laying the foundation for India’s eastern stability. Thus, New Delhi needs a patient, transparent, and multi-layered diplomatic strategy driven by trust, economic partnership, and cultural harmony. Bangladesh is no longer merely a “player”; it has become a quiet architect whose choices will shape South Asia’s future. The time has come for India and Bangladesh to find a shared path one that transforms competition into cooperation, and uncertainty into lasting stability.
