New Delhi: India’s fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level for the first time, marking a major demographic shift for the country. According to the latest Sample Registration System report, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, below the 2.1 level generally required to maintain a stable population over the long term.
The decline reflects changes that have developed over several decades. Greater access to education, wider use of contraceptives, improved decision-making power for women, and rising living costs have all contributed to smaller family sizes. Falling infant mortality has also played a role. As child survival rates improve, families often choose to have fewer children.
The trend varies sharply across regions. Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6. In contrast, New Delhi reported a rate of 1.2, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu stood at 1.3. These differences closely align with levels of education, healthcare access, and economic development.
Experts warn that a continued decline in fertility could reshape India’s future workforce. The country has benefited from a demographic dividend since 2005, with a large working-age population supporting economic growth. Lower birth rates today could lead to a smaller labour force and a larger elderly population in the coming decades.
The demographic shift is also expected to influence political debates. Population changes between northern and southern states have renewed concerns over future parliamentary representation and the distribution of government resources.
The discussion has also intersected with religious demographics. Government data indicates that fertility rates have declined across all faith communities. Among Muslims, the fertility rate fell from 4.41 in 1992 to 2.36 in 2021, while among Hindus it declined from 3.3 to 1.94 during the same period.
Some states have begun introducing incentives to encourage childbirth. Andhra Pradesh recently announced financial benefits for families welcoming a third or fourth child. Other states have expanded access to publicly funded fertility services.
Experts argue that alongside demographic planning, India must prepare for an ageing society through stronger healthcare systems, pensions, and social security support.
Story by Priyanka Shankar for Al Jazeera
