Netanyahu has recently raised the ceiling of negotiations. Before Hamas’s response, he declared that “the partial deal has become a thing of the past,” and that Israel seeks a comprehensive deal.
Four days have passed since Hamas gave what was described as a positive response to the proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but Israel has not yet replied, continuing instead its policy of secrecy. Unlike previous proposals, leaks to the Israeli media have been largely absent.
This absence of leaks is attributed to the fact that the file is restricted to Benjamin Netanyahu and Ron Dermer. Neither Israeli ministers nor security officials know the nature of the expected response or its details — indeed, they do not even know what Netanyahu himself is thinking, according to Israeli media reports.
Netanyahu has recently raised the ceiling of negotiations. Before Hamas’s response, and when he sensed that matters were heading toward a breakthrough, he declared that “the partial deal has become a thing of the past,” and that Israel is now interested in a comprehensive deal, in clear contradiction to what he had insisted on in the past.
No American pressure on Netanyahu
Mediators may have expected that Hamas’s positive response would prompt the U.S. administration to pressure Netanyahu to accept the deal. But this did not happen, and it appears not to be a priority for President Donald Trump.
The U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, was explicit in a radio interview with the “Israeli Broadcasting Corporation,” when he confirmed that Washington does not dictate Israel’s decisions regarding the war in Gaza or negotiations with Hamas, stressing that the decision rests entirely with Tel Aviv. Under this unlimited support, the final decision rests solely with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu freed from internal pressures
Opposition media outlets usually link Netanyahu’s rejection or hesitation in reaching a prisoner exchange and ceasefire deal to his desire to preserve his coalition from threats by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to withdraw. But are these threats truly serious at this stage?
Despite their public statements rejecting any prisoner exchange or ceasefire, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have not recently threatened to dissolve the government, at least not in recent days. Moreover, it is not easy for this extremist current to topple a “full right-wing” government, since doing so would be frowned upon by the right-wing base itself. Such a move would be counted against them in the next elections, especially as this base has long awaited a government based solely on right-wing parties.
In addition, Netanyahu’s former ally, Benny Gantz, has recently opened the door to the possibility of returning to government, with the aim of strengthening pro-deal voices and contributing to coalition stability.
And even if the government were to collapse, early elections would likely be held next spring, only a few months before their scheduled date in October 2026. This means that early elections are not a serious obstacle for Netanyahu, especially given his success in maintaining his coalition throughout this period.
Military movement on the ground
Israel is currently preoccupied with a plan to occupy Gaza City, parts of which have already begun through military movements in the al-Zeitoun neighbourhood southeast of the city, in Jabalia, and on the outskirts of Gaza.
Netanyahu is trying to promote the idea that this operation will be the final one before achieving what he calls “absolute victory” or “the decisive defeat of Hamas.” Incidentally, these are the very same justifications he used about a year and a half ago when he launched the military operation in Rafah in the south of the Strip.
[by Ahmad Jaradat in Alaraby]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque
