– Md. Sami Ahmad
Patna
As Bihar gears up for its 2025 Assembly elections, expected in October-November, the political landscape is heading to a multi-cornered contest that could redefine the state’s power dynamics. The NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and BJP, faces off against the Mahagathbandhan of RJD, Congress, and Left parties. But injecting unpredictability are two wildcard entrants: Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Prashant Kishor’s JSP.
Both AIMIM and JSP are aggressively courting the state’s 17.7% Muslim population (as per the latest data of Bihar caste-based survey), traditionally a bulwark for the Mahagathbandhan, raising the spectre of vote fragmentation.
In this backdrop, the Muslims in Bihar are faced with the most crucial question: Is this a clash of ‘B teams’ – peripheral spoilers inadvertently aiding the BJP – or a genuine contest where these figures emerge as pivotal influencers? With unemployment, migration, corruption charges against key ministers, and the contentious Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls dominating discourse, the battle for Muslim votes could tip the scales in this 243-seat showdown.
Owaisi, the five-time MP from Hyderabad, has long eyed Bihar as an expansion ground for AIMIM’s brand of assertive politics seeking justice and development for Muslims. Entering Bihar in 2020, AIMIM stunned observers by clinching five seats in the Seemanchal region (Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar districts), where Muslims form 38-68% of the electorate. It is another story that later, AIMIM lost four of these five MLAs to RJD.
This debut win, many political analysts believe, came at a cost to the Mahagathbandhan, splitting minority votes and contributing to the NDA’s razor-thin 125-110 victory. Observers say barring the five constituencies where AIMIM candidates won in 2020, their candidature damaged the Mahagathbandhan either with the votes or the perception. On the other hand, Akhtarul Iman, AIMIM’s lone remaining MLA, contests that the Mahagathbandhan candidates lost where there were no candidates from AIMIM.
For 2025, Owaisi is doubling down with the ‘Seemanchal Nyay Yatra,’ a campaign blitz addressing Waqf amendments, voter list exclusions under SIR that sparked fears of disenfranchising minorities, particularly Muslims, and marginalisation of Muslims.
AIMIM’s Bihar unit, led by Akhtarul Iman, has formally sought six seats from RJD, framing it as a “united front” against the NDA. He even went to the house of RJD chief Lalu Prasad, beating drums (sic), pleading the inclusion of AIMIM into Mahagathbandhan. As there is no offer from RJD, the party chief is trying to position AIMIM as the unapologetic voice of Muslim interests, challenging RJD’s ‘paternalistic’ Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation that critics say has sidelined actual Muslim representation – evident in the mere handful of Muslim MLAs despite their demographic weight.
The party plans to expand its footprint beyond its 2020 contestation of 20 seats, targeting at least 100 seats statewide with a core focus on 8 constituencies in Seemanchal (Amour, Baisi, Bahadurganj, Kochadhaman, Jokihat, Kishanganj, Thakurganj, and Araria).
AIMIM’s strategy focuses on mobilising support around regional issues, including flood management, healthcare, scholarships, road connectivity, and overall development, while advocating for the establishment of a dedicated ‘Seemanchal Region Development Council’ under Article 371 of the Constitution.
The party aims for double-digit wins if it can consolidate its base, but success hinges on whether it secures an alliance with the Mahagathbandhan. Without it, AIMIM risks being a spoiler in triangular contests.
Owaisi is accused of visiting Bihar, particularly the Seemanchal region, only around the time of the election dates. Recently, he took a ‘Seemanchal Nyay Yatra’ which ran from Sep. 24 to 27, with roadshows, public meetings, and corner interactions across the region. His primary messages, delivered in rallies and videos, centred on three themes.
- Alliance Push and Anti-BJP Warning: He reiterated AIMIM’s formal letter to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav offering an alliance to “stop BJP,” demanding 6 seats in the Mahagathbandhan. Owaisi warned that rejecting this would expose who truly wants BJP to succeed, stating, “If they do not do this, people of Bihar will see who wants to make the BJP succeed and who wants to stop them. So, the decision is up to the people of Bihar. We have shouldered our responsibility.” He framed AIMIM’s outreach as a democratic effort to unite secular forces.
- Criticism of ‘Betrayers’ and Call for Justice: Owaisi accused “gaddars” (betrayers) – likely referring to the four AIMIM MLAs who defected to RJD in 2022 – of cheating Seemanchal’s people, vowing AIMIM would fight them “democratically.” He appealed for mass participation in the yatra to drive ‘progress and justice’.
- Development Focus: He highlighted Seemanchal’s neglect, pushing his private member’s bill for a development council and urging voters to prioritise local issues over national rhetoric.
Political observers say that AIMIM’s independent contest could significantly fragment the secular (primarily Muslim) vote in Seemanchal, where it polled strongly in 2020 (1.24% statewide vote share, with wins in 5 seats). This split was seen as benefiting BJP in close races (e.g., Gopalganj and Raniganj), as anti-NDA votes divided between AIMIM and RJD, plus Congress.
Apart from the debate over who splits the secular votes, AIMIM supporters argue that secular parties, particularly RJD, are not giving proportionate space for Muslim candidates. They also accuse secular parties of invisibilising Muslim faces, as ‘they take them for granted’ and care more about Hindu votes. Many observers say that this is such a bitter truth for secular parties that they find themselves in an awkward position giving space to AIMIM’s brand of politics.
The other question that puts RJD in a spot is that, allegedly, it fails to transfer its core voters to a Muslim candidate. Many observers cite the example of RJD’s senior leader Abdul Bari Siddiuqi’s loss in the last election as proof of Tejashwi Yadav’s failure to get his core voters intact for Muslim candidates.
While AIMIM, after trying unsuccessfully to forge an alliance, is restricting itself mostly to Seemanchal, Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist-turned-politician, running the Jan Suraj Party (JSP), seeks no alliance. His JSP is contesting all 243 seats in a bold debut. Considered the architect of Modi’s 2014 campaign and Nitish’s 2015 win, PK has spent three years on a statewide padyatra, building or at least claiming, JSP as a ‘caste-neutral’ alternative focused on jobs, education, and anti-corruption.
An online survey at JSP’s website shows that people consider unemployment as the biggest challenge. The survey says that for 34% of people, unemployment is the biggest challenge, followed equally by corruption and educational system failure, with 19%. Migration is the next with 18%. Eight percent think fearless crime is the biggest challenge, while 5% think what ails Bihar the most is a collapsed health system.
Another survey on JSP’s website claims that 74% of the online survey voters think that Prashant Kishor is the individual who can change the ‘current mismanagement in Bihar.’ Tejashwi Yadav and Chirag Paswan got only 7% votes each, but this may be heavily influenced by JSP workers.
Like Owaisi, Kishor’s pitch to Muslims may be challenging for the Mahagathbandhan and particularly for RJD and Tejashwi Yadav, the current leader of the opposition. PK has announced fielding 40 Muslim candidates, roughly proportional to their population share. Though he has also proposed a ‘no-contest pact’ with RJD that his JSP won’t field a Muslim where RJD does, and vice versa – to avoid splitting anti-BJP votes, but it seems there is no taker for it.
Interestingly, PK dismisses the MY formula as a myth, arguing it’s ‘YM’ (Yadavs first, Muslims as fearful add-ons), and vows to dismantle Bihar’s ‘jungle raj’ legacy while critiquing Nitish’s ‘looting’ administration. Recent opinion polls, like the Times Now-JVC survey, predict JSP could disrupt Mahagathbandhan strongholds and surprise with youth appeal, potentially emerging as a kingmaker in a hung assembly.
