8 June 2024: Professor Arun Kumar, a respected economist and former head of the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning at JNU, anticipates a shift towards inclusive economic policies under a coalition government led by the BJP, following the recent general elections.
In an interview with Mohd. Naushad Khan, Professor Kumar highlighted the potential impact of coalition dynamics on the economy, emphasizing that strong coalition partners with differing views could lead to significant changes. However, he noted that dominant partners may sway outcomes by offering inducements, citing historical examples.
Regarding the BJP’s coalition partners’ demands, such as special status for Andhra Pradesh and increased funds for certain states, Professor Kumar suggested that fulfilling these demands could allow the BJP to advance its agenda, albeit with potential resistance on social issues.
Reflecting on the broader lessons from the elections, Professor Kumar stated that the BJP’s loss of majority signaled public discontent with economic distress, social divisions, and threats to constitutional provisions like reservations. He anticipated pressures from both within and outside the government to modify the agenda accordingly.
In terms of governance style, Professor Kumar predicted a more consultative approach from Prime Minister Modi within the coalition, necessitating a focus on a common minimum program. He suggested that the perception of a coalition government could impact foreign direct investment (FDI), noting that inclusive policies could bolster the economy and attract more FDI.
Looking ahead, Professor Kumar emphasized the need for a shift in development strategy towards labor-intensive sectors, agriculture, rural development, education, and health to address unemployment, price rise, inequality, and low private sector investment.
In conclusion, Professor Kumar outlined a path forward for the coalition government, emphasizing inclusive economic policies to boost the economy and address pressing challenges.
