Patna: The upcoming Bihar Assembly elections may be shaped by female voters, who could outweigh traditional caste calculations, pollsters say. The 243-member state legislature is set to go to polls in late October or early November, with the NDA and Mahagathbandhan as the main contenders.
Top psephologists highlight the impact of schemes targeting women, such as the upcoming Direct Benefit Transfer of Rs 10,000 to nearly 80 lakh women in Bihar. Amitabh Tiwari noted that in the 2020 elections, women outvoted men in north Bihar, proving decisive for Nitish Kumar’s victory. Yashwant Deshmukh emphasized Kumar’s long-standing personal connection with women voters, citing initiatives from his early tenure, including bicycle and school uniform distribution to girls.
While the Mahagathbandhan relies on its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base, analysts argue this alone may not secure victory. Pradeep Gupta stated that the M-Y factor contributes over 33 percent of votes but is spread across six regions, limiting its decisive impact. Experts agree that a combination of women, middle-class, and youth votes will be key.
The rise of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party adds uncertainty, particularly among young voters who are increasingly active on social media. Opposition efforts to challenge voter roll revisions have so far failed to gain traction, according to psephologists. Current projections favor the NDA, with seat estimates ranging from 125 to 175, depending on female voter turnout.
The elections are expected to reflect evolving voter priorities, where welfare schemes and female engagement could outweigh traditional caste-based politics.
